Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 May 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
May 6, 2004
Filed under ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 May 06 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 605 (S11W30) now
exhibits a simple beta configuration having decayed in both size
and magnetic complexity. Region 604 (S19E10), the only other sunspot
group on the visible disk, was quiet.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The high speed solar
wind stream that became geoeffective yesterday remains in effect.
Solar wind speed was approximately 550 km/s, but IMF Bz was
predominantly northward.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. The high speed coronal hole
stream in progress now may produce isolated active periods through
07 May.

III. Event Probabilities 07 May-09 May

  • Class M 05/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 06 May 086
  • Predicted 07 May-09 May 085/090/095
  • 90 Day Mean 06 May 106

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 05 May 012/013
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May 010/010
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May 008/010-005/008-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May-09 May

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 25/15/15
  • Minor storm 10/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 30/20/20
  • Minor storm 15/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.