Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 May 2003

SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 349 (S15W71)
produced a long duration C3 event at 06/0148 UTC which was visible
in the GOES Solar x-ray imagery. Region 348 (S34W68) and 349 still
maintain a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 348 and 349 are expected to continue low
C-class flares with a slight chance for an M-class event.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm conditions.
Solar wind speeds increased throughout the past 24 hours to above
700 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field Bz component was
oriented southward for extended periods. The elevated geomagnetic
activity is believed to be the result of a recurrent coronal hole.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to minor storm conditions for 07 May as the
coronal hole high speed stream continues. Quiet to unsettled
conditions should return on 08 and 09 May as a transition is made
out of the high speed solar wind flow.

III. Event Probabilities 07 May-09 May

• Class M 60/50/40
• Class X 10/05/01
• Proton 05/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 06 May 129
• Predicted 07 May-09 May 115/115/110
• 90 Day Mean 06 May 127

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
O

• bserved Afr/Ap 05 May 011/012
• Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May 022/022
• Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May 020/025-015/015-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May-09 May

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 40/30/20
• Minor storm 20/15/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 50/40/30
• Minor storm 30/20/15
• Major-severe storm 10/10/05