Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 Mar 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Mar 06 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 066 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity remains at very low levels. Region 984 (S08W80) is a small beta sunspot group rotating quietly around the west limb. The rest of the solar disk and limb is very quiet.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit briefly exceeded high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels over the next three days. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 7 March. A recurring high speed coronal hole stream will rotate into a geoeffective position on 8 March, and produce occasional active to minor storm periods on 8 and 9 March.

III. Event Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 06 Mar 070
• Predicted 07 Mar-09 Mar 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 06 Mar 074

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 05 Mar 007/008
• Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Mar 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar 005/005-012/015-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/40/40
• Minor storm 05/20/20
• Major-severe storm 01/10/10

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/50/50
• Minor storm 10/25/25
• Major-severe storm 05/15/15