Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 Mar 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
March 7, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2005 Mar 06 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 065 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Region
741 (N12E44) produced several low level B-class flares during the
period. A slight decay in sunspot area was observed today. No new
regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels. A
recurrent coronal hole high speed stream became geoeffective early
in the period. Solar wind speeds increased from 380 km/s to near
650 km/s by the end of the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels due to
coronal hole effects. Isolated minor storm conditions are likely to
occur through tomorrow (7 March).

III. Event Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 06 Mar 084
  • Predicted 07 Mar-09 Mar 085/090/095
  • 90 Day Mean 06 Mar 097

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 05 Mar 008/010
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Mar 023/035
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar 020/025-015/020-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 40/30/25
  • Minor storm 20/15/10
  • Major-severe storm 10/05/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 40/40/30
  • Minor storm 30/20/15
  • Major-severe storm 15/10/05

SpaceRef staff editor.