Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 Mar 2003
SDF Number 065 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity continues at very low levels. Region 296
(N12W05) remains the largest and most complex group on the visible
disk, but has shown slow decay and very little activity over the
past 48 hours. Some developing complexity and considerable plage
fluctuations were noted in Region 301 (N22E08), but the region is
still quite small. No other significant changes were noted.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Though unusually quiet for its size and complexity, Region 296 has
potential for a C-class flare and a slight chance for an M-class
event. Minor C-class flares are also possible in Region 301.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active with isolated, high
latitude minor storm periods. This disturbance is due to a high
speed coronal hole stream, with solar wind speed averaging 500 to
550 km/s over the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to begin the period at unsettled to active levels, but
should gradually decline to mostly quiet to unsettled levels by day
two. Isolated active periods are likely on days two and three.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
- Class M 15/15/15
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 06 Mar 150
- Predicted 07 Mar-09 Mar 145/145/145
- 90 Day Mean 06 Mar 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 05 Mar 012/016
- Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Mar 015/020
- Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar 010/015-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 30/25/20
- Minor storm 10/05/05
- Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 40/30/30
- Minor storm 15/10/10
- Major-severe storm 10/05/05
