Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 Jun 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jun 06 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 157 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jun 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 960 (S07E11), now in decay, produced a C9/2f at 1725 UTC. The region has simplified in white light and h-alpha. Magnetically the region is now classified as beta-gamma. Otherwise, there is little of significance on the visible disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to persist at low levels. However, there is a reasonable chance of an isolated M-class flare from Region 960.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. Slow solar wind (approximately 340 km/s) is currently buffeting the magnetosphere. The GOES greater than 2 MeV energetic electron flux reached high levels once again.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next three days.

III. Event Probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun

• Class M 40/40/40
• Class X 10/10/10
• Proton 10/10/10
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 06 Jun 085
• Predicted 07 Jun-09 Jun 085/085/080
• 90 Day Mean 06 Jun 074

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jun 002/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jun 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jun-09 Jun 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/02

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01