Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 Jun 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Jun 06 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 157 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jun 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity continues at very low levels. No new growth was observed in Region 892 (S07E41), and the region appears to have simplified. New Region 893 (S03E64) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low. There is a slight chance for a C-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. A large recurrent coronal hole is rotating into a geoeffective position. Periods of sustained southward IMF Bz resulted in occasional active periods.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels. A large coronal hole is rotating into a geoeffective position and is expected to produce occasional active to minor storm periods over the next two days. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 08 June.

III. Event Probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 06 Jun 078
• Predicted 07 Jun-09 Jun 080/080/080
• 90 Day Mean 06 Jun 081

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jun 002/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jun 012/020
• Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jun-09 Jun 020/020-015/015-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 40/35/20
• Minor storm 15/10/01
• Major-severe storm 05/05/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 50/45/25
• Minor storm 20/15/05
• Major-severe storm 10/05/01