Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 Jun 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jun 06 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 157 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jun 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Today’s activity consisted of a
few, low-level C-class flares. The activity was shared between
Region 772 (S18W30) and Region 776 (S05E61). Region 776 is currently
the largest group on the disk with an area 300 millionths in an
E-type configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days. There is, however, a slight chance for an
isolated M-class event from either Region 772 or Region 776.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to quiet during the past 24
hours. Conditions began at unsettled levels but have been quiet
since 0900 UTC. This is consistent with the solar wind data which
indicate the end of the high speed stream, beginning at 0600 UTC
with a steady decline in velocity. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with a chance for isolated active periods
at high latitudes for the next 24 hours (7 June). Conditions should
be predominantly unsettled for the 2nd and 3rd days (8-9 June).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
- Class M 20/20/20
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 05/05/05
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 06 Jun 106
- Predicted 07 Jun-09 Jun 110/110/110
- 90 Day Mean 06 Jun 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jun 014/020
- Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jun 007/010
- Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jun-09 Jun 010/018-010/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 25/20/20
- Minor storm 15/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/25/25
- Minor storm 15/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05