Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 Jun 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Jun 06 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 158 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jun 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels today. Region
621 (S14W41) produced several low level B-class flares and underwent
no significant changes today. Region 627 (S08E17) also produced
several low level B-class flares and this region is currently
classified as a magnetic beta group. No new regions were numbered
today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels today. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated active
conditions may be possible mostly in the high latitudes on the 8th
and 9th of June due to a weak recurrent high speed coronal hole
stream.

III. Event Probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 06 Jun 088
• Predicted 07 Jun-09 Jun 085/085/090
• 90 Day Mean 06 Jun 104

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jun 008/011
• Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jun 008/012
• Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jun-09 Jun 008/012-008/012-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jun-09 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/20/25
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/30/40
• Minor storm 10/10/15
• Major-severe storm 05/05/10