Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 Jul 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Jul 06 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 187 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jul 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 786 (N11E10) has
produced several C-class events during the last 24 hours. Data
indicates this region contains a strong magnetic delta
configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
An isolated M-class event is possible from Region 783 (S03W36) and
786.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels for 07 July. Unsettled to active
conditions are expected for 08-09 July. This increase in activity
is due to possible effects from the halo CME observed on 05 July and
also a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream moving into a
geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
- Class M 50/50/50
- Class X 10/10/10
- Proton 05/05/05
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 06 Jul 123
- Predicted 07 Jul-09 Jul 125/120/120
- 90 Day Mean 06 Jul 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jul 003/005
- Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jul 005/005
- Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul 005/007-015/020-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/25/25
- Minor storm 05/15/15
- Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 15/35/35
- Minor storm 05/20/20
- Major-severe storm 01/10/10
