Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 Jul 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
July 6, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Jul 06 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 188 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jul 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. A full halo CME was
observed from the SOHO/LASCO imagery late on 05 July which appears
to be a backside event. There was also a Type II radio sweep with a
shock speed of 424 km/s that may be associated with this CME. The
event could likely be from old Region 635 (L=052). This region was
a moderately complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration when it
rotated off the solar disk on 28 June. A long duration B1 flare was
observed at 06/1320 UTC which was associated with a CME off the west

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 06 Jul 079
  • Predicted 07 Jul-09 Jul 080/080/085
  • 90 Day Mean 06 Jul 098

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jul 005/007
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jul 007/010
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul 005/010-008/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 10/15/15
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 20/25/25
  • Minor storm 10/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.