Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 Jul 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Jul 06 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 188 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jul 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. A full halo CME was
observed from the SOHO/LASCO imagery late on 05 July which appears
to be a backside event. There was also a Type II radio sweep with a
shock speed of 424 km/s that may be associated with this CME. The
event could likely be from old Region 635 (L=052). This region was
a moderately complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration when it
rotated off the solar disk on 28 June. A long duration B1 flare was
observed at 06/1320 UTC which was associated with a CME off the west
limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 06 Jul 079
- Predicted 07 Jul-09 Jul 080/080/085
- 90 Day Mean 06 Jul 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jul 005/007
- Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jul 007/010
- Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul 005/010-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 10/15/15
- Minor storm 05/05/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 20/25/25
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
