Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 Jul 2003

SDF Number 187 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jul 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low to moderate levels.
There was an M2.3 x-ray flare from Region 400 (N05E03) which
occurred on 06 July at 0032 UTC.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. The potential for M-class flare activity is
still good from Regions 397 (N11W39) and 400 (N05E03).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The
coronal hole which influenced the previous days activity has moved
out of geoeffective range. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence
at geostationary altitudes has been at moderate levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next 24 hours.
On day two, there is a chance for a weak enhancement in the solar
wind particles at earth due to a coronal mass ejection which
occurred on 04 July at 1458 UTC. This will elevate the geomagnetic
field to unsettled to minor storm levels, but should quickly return
to quiet to unsettled levels by the third day.

III. Event Probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
Class M 60/60/60
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jul 130
Predicted 07 Jul-09 Jul 130/135/140
90 Day Mean 06 Jul 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jul 014/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jul 012/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jul-09 Jul 010/015-018/020-015/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jul-09 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/30/25
Minor storm 10/20/20
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/30/25
Minor storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 05/10/05