Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 Jan 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Jan 06 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 006 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled with some isolated active periods during the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed remained elevated throughout the period and showed characteristics consistent with a high speed stream from a coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled with a chance for active periods for the first day (07 January). Conditions are expected to decline to quiet to unsettled for the second day (08 January) and should be predominantly quiet for the third day (09 January) as the high speed stream is expected to subside.

III. Event Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 06 Jan 079
• Predicted 07 Jan-09 Jan 080/080/080
• 90 Day Mean 06 Jan 073

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan 013/018
• Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan 012/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan 012/015-007/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 35/20/15
• Minor storm 10/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 40/25/15
• Minor storm 20/10/05
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01