Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 Jan 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Jan 06 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 006 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity continues at very low levels. Regions 933 (S04W14) and 935 (SO6E10) were quiet and stable. New Region 936 (N10E43) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels. There is a slight chance of a C-class flare from Regions 933 and 935.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic was quiet. Solar wind speed has been in a gradual decline over the past 48 hours and finished the period near 450 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 06 Jan 087
• Predicted 07 Jan-09 Jan 090/090/090
• 90 Day Mean 06 Jan 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan 006/009
• Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan 005/005-005/008-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/10/10
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/20/20
• Minor storm 01/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/05/05