Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 Jan 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Jan 06 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 006 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. New Region 845 (N18E72) emerged on the east limb as a Cao Beta group.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for an isolated C-flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan

• Class M 05/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 06 Jan 082
• Predicted 07 Jan-09 Jan 080/080/080
• 90 Day Mean 06 Jan 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan 003/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan 006/006
• Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan 005/008-005/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/15
• Minor storm 10/10/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01