Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 Jan 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Jan 06 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 006 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was high. Newly assigned Region 537
(N04E76) produced an M5 x-ray event at 0629 UTC. A CME was
associated with this event, but it appears to be centered over this
east limb region and has very little, if any, earthward directed
component. Region 537 produced additional small flares during the
past 24 hours. Region 536 (S10E12) continues to dominate the disk in
size and magnetic complexity (beta-gamma-delta), but was remarkably
quiet and stable and has been mostly unchanged during the past 24
hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly moderate for 7-9 January, with Region 536 and Region
537 being the main sources for energetic events. There is a slight
chance for another, isolated major flare event from either of these
regions.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels during the
past 24 hours. A high-speed solar wind stream continues to be
observed at the ACE spacecraft. Active conditions predominated from
the beginning of the day through about 0900 UTC, after which Bz
turned weakly northwards and the geomagnetic field declined to quiet
to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at
high levels during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be active with periods of minor storm conditions for 7
and 8 January. In addition to persistent effects from the high speed
wind stream, an enhancement to activity levels is possible beginning
late on the 7th or early on the 8th in response to the CME
associated with the M6 flare of 5 January. Conditions should subside
to mostly active late on 8 January and remain mostly active on 9
January.

III. Event Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan

• Class M 70/70/70
• Class X 20/20/20
• Proton 05/05/05
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 06 Jan 117
• Predicted 07 Jan-09 Jan 120/120/125
• 90 Day Mean 06 Jan 137

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan 015/022
• Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan 015/022
• Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan 025/030-025/030-020/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan-09 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 40/40/35
• Minor storm 25/25/20
• Major-severe storm 15/15/10

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/25/30
• Minor storm 35/35/30
• Major-severe storm 30/30/20