Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 Feb 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Feb 06 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 037 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected. The visible disk was spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet at all latitudes. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day 1 (07 Feb). Activity is expected to increase to unsettled levels during days 2 – 3 (08 – 09 Feb) as a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream becomes geoeffective. Isolated active periods are also possible on day 3 (09 Feb).

III. Event Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 06 Feb 072
• Predicted 07 Feb-09 Feb 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 06 Feb 075

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb 002/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Feb 002/002
• Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb 005/005-008/008-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/20/25
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/25/30
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01