Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 Feb 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
February 7, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2005 Feb 06 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 037 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity remained at low levels today. Region
732 (N09E70, believed to be old Region 720) was numbered today and
was the source for the largest flare of the period, a C1 x-ray flare
that occurred at 06/0939Z. Analysis of the magnetic field structure
indicates a fair amount of complexity over a large are of plage
while the sunspot area coverage is currently meager. New Region 731
(S02E27) was also numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 732 could continue the production of C-class
flare activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The active
conditions occurred between 06/0600 and 0900Z due to the associated
solar sector boundary crossing that was seen at the ACE spacecraft
at approximately 06/0500Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with a chance for
isolated minor storming for 7 February due to a recurrent coronal
hole high speed stream. Predominantly unsettled conditions are
expected on 7-8 February as the coronal hole wanes.

III. Event Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb

  • Class M 20/20/20
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 06 Feb 097
  • Predicted 07 Feb-09 Feb 095/100/100
  • 90 Day Mean 06 Feb 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb 001/004
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Feb 005/008
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb 015/020-012/012-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 35/25/20
  • Minor storm 15/10/05
  • Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 45/25/20
  • Minor storm 20/10/05
  • Major-severe storm 10/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.