Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 Feb 2005
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Feb 06 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 037 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2005
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity remained at low levels today. Region
732 (N09E70, believed to be old Region 720) was numbered today and
was the source for the largest flare of the period, a C1 x-ray flare
that occurred at 06/0939Z. Analysis of the magnetic field structure
indicates a fair amount of complexity over a large are of plage
while the sunspot area coverage is currently meager. New Region 731
(S02E27) was also numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 732 could continue the production of C-class
flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The active
conditions occurred between 06/0600 and 0900Z due to the associated
solar sector boundary crossing that was seen at the ACE spacecraft
at approximately 06/0500Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with a chance for
isolated minor storming for 7 February due to a recurrent coronal
hole high speed stream. Predominantly unsettled conditions are
expected on 7-8 February as the coronal hole wanes.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
- Class M 20/20/20
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 06 Feb 097
- Predicted 07 Feb-09 Feb 095/100/100
- 90 Day Mean 06 Feb 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb 001/004
- Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Feb 005/008
- Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb 015/020-012/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 35/25/20
- Minor storm 15/10/05
- Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 45/25/20
- Minor storm 20/10/05
- Major-severe storm 10/01/01