Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 Feb 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
February 6, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,

Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Feb 06 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 037 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity decreased to very low levels. The
activity today consisted of several minor low level B-class flares.
Region 551 (S06E13) has shown some growth in penumbral coverage
since yesterday. The gamma structure in the trailing portion of the
region remains intact. Region 549 (N14W09) has undergone decay in
sunspot count and areal coverage. No new regions were numbered

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Region 551 has the potential to produce an isolated low
level M-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. A period of
minor storm conditions were observed at high latitudes between
06/0300 and 0600Z due to a high speed stream (near 600km/s) and
sustained southward Bz. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from predominantly quiet to active levels
throughout the period. Day three may experience isolated minor
storm conditions at high latitudes due to a recurrent coronal hole
high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb

  • Class M 20/20/20
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 06 Feb 107
  • Predicted 07 Feb-09 Feb 110/110/110
  • 90 Day Mean 06 Feb 119

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb 008/014
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Feb 015/019
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb 012/015-010/015-010/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 25/25/25
  • Minor storm 10/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 35/35/40
  • Minor storm 15/15/20
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/10

SpaceRef staff editor.