Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 Feb 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
February 6, 2003
Filed under , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 Feb 2003

SDF Number 037 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was at low to moderate levels. An M1.2
at 06/0349 UTC from Region 278 (N18E64) was the only M-class
activity. There were several C-class flares, with a maximum of C3.4
at 06/0214 UTC from Region 277 (S17E55). Regions 276 (S15E22), 277, and
278 continue to show activity. Regions 280 (S08E29) and 281
(S14E73) were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low with isolated M-class flare activity from Regions 276,
277, and 278 possible.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with an isolated
period of active levels during the past 24 hours. Solar wind
observation shows a continued high speed stream associated with a
coronal hole. The greater than 2MeV electron fluxes at
geosynchronous orbit have been at mostly high levels for the last 24

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: For the forecast period, the
geomagnetic field is expected to remain mostly quiet to unsettled
with isolated periods of active levels due to a favorably positioned
coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb

  • Class M 55/50/50
  • Class X 10/05/05
  • Proton 05/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 06 Feb 150
  • Predicted 07 Feb-09 Feb 155/160/165
  • 90 Day Mean 06 Feb 153

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 05 Feb 007/012
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Feb 012/015
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Feb-09 Feb 008/010-005/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Feb-09 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 35/30/30
  • Minor storm 15/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 40/35/35
  • Minor storm 15/15/15
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.