Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 Dec 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Dec 06 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to active. A brief period (06-09Z) of minor storm conditions at mid latitudes and major storm conditions at high latitudes was observed as solar wind speeds at ACE increased above 500 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet as the coronal hole high speed stream wanes.

III. Event Probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 06 Dec 069
• Predicted 07 Dec-09 Dec 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 06 Dec 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec 007/010
• Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Dec 012/007
• Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/05/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/05/05
• Minor storm 05/01/01
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01