Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 Dec 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Dec 06 2330 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No new regions were
numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Active levels were caused
by sustained periods of southward Bz. Solar wind speed at ACE has
increased from approximately 400 km/s to 460 km/s.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active conditions possible.

III. Event Probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 06 Dec 093
• Predicted 07 Dec-09 Dec 090/090/090
• 90 Day Mean 06 Dec 107

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec 007/008
• Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Dec 012/020
• Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec 008/010-008/010-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/25/25
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/30/30
• Minor storm 15/15/15
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05