Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 Dec 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
December 6, 2003
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2003 Dec 06 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 510 (S23W96)
produced frequent x-ray flares through the day. Its largest were an
M1 at 1120 UTC and an M2 at 1546 UTC. This region was by far the
most active center, as the other spotted regions were quiet and
stable.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
generally low. There is a declining probability of an M-class flare
as Region 510 rotates farther beyond west limb.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. A high
speed stream’s influence diminished throughout the day. The greater
than 2 MeV electrons at GOES were at high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 48 hours. Enhanced
solar wind may cause periods of minor storming during local
nighttimes. Activity should increase again on 9 December as another
high speed stream is due.

III. Event Probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec

  • Class M 20/10/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 06 Dec 109
  • Predicted 07 Dec-09 Dec 105/105/105
  • 90 Day Mean 06 Dec 136

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec 021/043
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Dec 020/022
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec 020/020-015/015-025/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 35/25/35
  • Minor storm 15/10/20
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/10

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 40/35/45
  • Minor storm 20/15/25
  • Major-severe storm 10/05/10

SpaceRef staff editor.