Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 Aug 2008
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Aug 06 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 219 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The solar disk was spotless. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (7 August), and unsettled to active on days two and three (8-9 August). The increase in activity is forecast due to a corotatng interaction region.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 06 Aug 067
- Predicted 07 Aug-09 Aug 066/066/066
- 90 Day Mean 06 Aug 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug 003/003
- Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug 005/005
- Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug 007/008-010/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 10/30/35
- Minor storm 01/01/05
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 15/30/40
- Minor storm 01/15/20
- Major-severe storm 01/01/05