Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 Aug 2007

By SpaceRef Editor
August 7, 2007
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 Aug 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Aug 06 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Two C-class flares were produced by Region 966 (S06E34), a C1/Sf at 0913Z and a C1/Sf at 1537Z. The event at 0913Z was accompanied by a type II radio sweep. Region 966 has shown modest growth during the past 24 hours and is now a small, D-type sunspot group.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet from the beginning of the period through 06/1500Z. Since then activity has increased to unsettled to active levels. The increase is being driven by the onset of a high speed stream from a coronal hole, as evidenced by steadily rising solar wind speeds.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for minor storm periods at high latitudes for the next 24 hours (07 August) as the current disturbance continues. Conditions should decline to mostly unsettled by the 2nd day (08 August) and should be predominantly quiet by day 3 (09 August).

III. Event Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug

  • Class M 05/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 06 Aug 070
  • Predicted 07 Aug-09 Aug 070/070/070
  • 90 Day Mean 06 Aug 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug 002/002
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug 007/008
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug 015/020-010/010-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 45/20/10
  • Minor storm 20/10/05
  • Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 30/25/10
  • Minor storm 25/15/05
  • Major-severe storm 15/10/01

SpaceRef staff editor.