Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 Aug 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
August 6, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Aug 06 2204 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 794 (S12W10) produced a
C1.1 flare at 05/2044 UTC. Region 792 (N10W41) has decayed into a
Cso group. Region 795 (N12E00) has developed into a Cso Beta group.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels.
Minor storming was observed at high latitudes between 06/0000 – 1200
UTC. Solar wind data indicate the onset of a coronal hole high
speed stream beginning about 05/2200. The solar wind speed remains
elevated at approximately 550 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with a chance for minor
storm conditions for the next three days (07-09 August).

III. Event Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug

  • Class M 30/30/30
  • Class X 05/05/05
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 06 Aug 093
  • Predicted 07 Aug-09 Aug 095/095/095
  • 90 Day Mean 06 Aug 096

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug 006/009
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug 022/030
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug 012/015-010/012-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 25/20/20
  • Minor storm 10/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 30/25/30
  • Minor storm 15/10/15
  • Major-severe storm 10/05/10

SpaceRef staff editor.