Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 Aug 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Aug 06 2204 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 794 (S12W10) produced a
C1.1 flare at 05/2044 UTC. Region 792 (N10W41) has decayed into a
Cso group. Region 795 (N12E00) has developed into a Cso Beta group.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels.
Minor storming was observed at high latitudes between 06/0000 – 1200
UTC. Solar wind data indicate the onset of a coronal hole high
speed stream beginning about 05/2200. The solar wind speed remains
elevated at approximately 550 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels with a chance for minor
storm conditions for the next three days (07-09 August).

III. Event Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug

• Class M 30/30/30
• Class X 05/05/05
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 06 Aug 093
• Predicted 07 Aug-09 Aug 095/095/095
• 90 Day Mean 06 Aug 096

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug 006/009
• Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug 022/030
• Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug 012/015-010/012-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 25/20/20
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/25/30
• Minor storm 15/10/15
• Major-severe storm 10/05/10