Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 Aug 2003
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 Aug 2003
SDF Number 218 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Aug 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Several B-class
flares were observed during the period, including a B8.7 from Region
424. Region 424 (S18E13) continues to grow in magnetic complexity
to a Beta-Gamma-Delta configuration. No new regions were numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 424 may produce C-class flares and isolated
M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagentic field was at quiet to severe storm levels. ACE
satellite data indicated a consistent southward Bz at 06/0200 UTC,
with increasing solar wind speed thereafter, up to a maximum of 600
km/s. ACE data is consistent with the arrival of a co-rotating
interaction region and associated high speed solar wind from an
equatorial coronal hole moving into geoeffective position.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity for the
next two days is expected to be unsettled to active, with isolated
minor storm conditions, due to the increased solar wind stream from
an associated coronal hole in geoeffective position. On day three,
geomagnetic activity is expected at quiet to unsettled conditions,
as the coronal hole moves out of geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
- Class M 45/45/45
- Class X 10/10/10
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Obse
- rved 06 Aug 129
- Predicted 07 Aug-09 Aug 130/130/130
- 90 Day Mean 06 Aug 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 05 Aug 006/009
- Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Aug 035/045
- Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Aug-09 Aug 035/045-025/045-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Aug-09 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 30/30/30
- Minor storm 25/25/20
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/30/30
- Minor storm 35/35/25
- Major-severe storm 10/10/10