Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 April 2012

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2012 Apr 06 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 097 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Apr 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels for the past 24 hours.
Region 1450 (N16W45) produced a long duration C1/Sf flare that
peaked at 05/2110Z. SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery observed a partial halo
CME at 05/2125Z. Associated Type II and Type IV radio sweeps were
also observed with an estimated shock speed for the Type II of 360
km/s.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with C-class flares expected for the next three days (07-09 April).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet for the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on day one (07 April). Unsettled levels are
expected on days two and three (08-09 April) with a chance for
isolated active levels due to the anticipated arrival of the CME
from Region 1450 and the recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
The latest model run shows the CME to be potentially geoeffective
with an estimated speed of 845 km/s and is expected to arrive late
on the 08th/early on the 09th of April.

III. Event Probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Apr 097
Predicted 07 Apr-09 Apr 105/105/110
90 Day Mean 06 Apr 116

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Apr 011/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Apr 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr 006/005-007/010-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/20
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor storm 15/25/30
Major-severe storm 05/10/25