Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 Apr 2009

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2009 Apr 06 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 096 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Apr 2009

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours and the solar disk remains spotless

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for 07 April. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for 08 April as a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream becomes geoeffective. Predominately unsettled levels with periods of active conditions are expected for 09 April under the influence of the coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 06 Apr 069
• Predicted 07 Apr-09 Apr 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 06 Apr 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 05 Apr 003/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Apr 002/004
• Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr 005/005-007/008-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/30/35
• Minor storm 01/05/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/35/35
• Minor storm 01/10/15
• Major-severe storm 01/05/05