Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 Apr 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Apr 06 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 096 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Apr 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. The visible disk remains spotless. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 07 and 08 April. A recurrent coronal hole is expected to become geoeffective on 09 April with elevated conditions of minor storm to isolated severe storm levels possible.

III. Event Probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 06 Apr 071
• Predicted 07 Apr-09 Apr 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 06 Apr 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 05 Apr 003/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Apr 003/004
• Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr 002/005-008/010-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/20/25
• Minor storm 01/05/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/10

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/20/35
• Minor storm 05/10/20
• Major-severe storm 01/05/15