Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 Apr 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Apr 06 2206 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 096 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Apr 2006
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 865 (S11W60) produced two M-class flares today, an impulsive M1 event occurring at 06/0533Z and a second impulsive M1 event occurring at 06/2042Z. The remainder of the observed flare activity recorded during the period were B-class events. Region 865 underwent slight decay in sunspot area (530 millionths). This region continues to depict a beta-gamma magnetic structure. Region 869 (S12E24) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 865 has the potential for the production of further impulsive M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. A sustained period of southward Bz was followed by active conditions between 06/0900-1200Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled levels on 07 and 08 January. Isolated active to minor storm conditions are expected on 09 January due to a recurrent transequatorial coronal hole high speed stream..
III. Event Probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr
- Class M 30/30/30
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 06 Apr 099
- Predicted 07 Apr-09 Apr 100/100/095
- 90 Day Mean 06 Apr 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 05 Apr 018/029
- Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Apr 010/012
- Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr 008/010-005/008-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 20/15/25
- Minor storm 05/01/15
- Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 25/15/40
- Minor storm 05/05/25
- Major-severe storm 01/01/15