Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 Apr 2006

By SpaceRef Editor
April 6, 2006
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 Apr 2006
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Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Apr 06 2206 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 096 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Apr 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 865 (S11W60) produced two M-class flares today, an impulsive M1 event occurring at 06/0533Z and a second impulsive M1 event occurring at 06/2042Z. The remainder of the observed flare activity recorded during the period were B-class events. Region 865 underwent slight decay in sunspot area (530 millionths). This region continues to depict a beta-gamma magnetic structure. Region 869 (S12E24) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 865 has the potential for the production of further impulsive M-class flare activity.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. A sustained period of southward Bz was followed by active conditions between 06/0900-1200Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled levels on 07 and 08 January. Isolated active to minor storm conditions are expected on 09 January due to a recurrent transequatorial coronal hole high speed stream..

III. Event Probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr

  • Class M 30/30/30
  • Class X 05/05/05
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 06 Apr 099
  • Predicted 07 Apr-09 Apr 100/100/095
  • 90 Day Mean 06 Apr 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 05 Apr 018/029
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Apr 010/012
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr 008/010-005/008-012/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 20/15/25
  • Minor storm 05/01/15
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 25/15/40
  • Minor storm 05/05/25
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/15

SpaceRef staff editor.