Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 06 Apr 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Apr 06 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 096 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Apr 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 747 (S05W59) produced a
C1.0 flare at 06/0605 UTC and a C1.6 flare at 06/0636 UTC. No new
regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Solar wind speed at ACE
decreased from 600 km/s to 500 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr

• Class M 05/05/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 06 Apr 088
• Predicted 07 Apr-09 Apr 090/090/085
• 90 Day Mean 06 Apr 096

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 05 Apr 030/048
• Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Apr 010/012
• Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Apr-09 Apr 008/010-005/008-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Apr-09 Apr

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/15/15
• Minor storm 10/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/20/20
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01