Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 Sep 2007

By SpaceRef Editor
September 6, 2007
Filed under , , ,
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 Sep 2007
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Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Sep 05 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No significant flares were observed during the past 24 hours.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active, with isolated minor storm periods possible on 06 September as a recurrent coronal hole moves into a geoeffective position. Expect quiet to unsettled conditions with isolated active periods possible at high latitudes on 07 September. Quiet to unsettled conditions will prevail on 08 September.

III. Event Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 05 Sep 068
  • Predicted 06 Sep-08 Sep 068/068/067
  • 90 Day Mean 05 Sep 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep 004/006
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep 009/013
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep 010/015-006/010-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 35/15/10
  • Minor storm 15/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 35/25/15
  • Minor storm 20/10/05
  • Major-severe storm 10/05/01

SpaceRef staff editor.