Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 Sep 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Sep 05 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. A 9 degree long
filament disappeared from N22W30 sometime after 04/1625 UTC and
before 05/0536 UTC. The SOHO/LASCO imagery observed filament
movement on EIT at 05/0512 UTC and a CME on C2 around 05/0654 UTC,
which seems to correspond with this event disappearance. At this
time the event appears to be directed away from the Earth. Two new
regions were numbered today as Region 669 (S06E35) and Region 670
(S14E34).

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The solar wind has
undergone some changes in the past 24 hours. Shortly before 05/0600
UTC the IMF Bz started southward oscillations and a gradual increase
in velocity and temperature began.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active conditions.

III. Event Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 05 Sep 103
• Predicted 06 Sep-08 Sep 105/110/110
• 90 Day Mean 05 Sep 110

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep 002/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep 008/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep 008/008-008/010-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01