Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 Sep 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
September 5, 2003
Filed under , ,

SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A single C1 flare occurred at
05/1301Z in Region 453 (S23W56). The fast growth rate observed in
this region during the last period has now slowed. Some minor
complexity was noted in this 200 millionths beta spot group. A
relatively bright plage field is rotating on the SE limb, but there
is no spot group visible yet. The remaining active regions were
mostly stable.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. Occasional low C-class flares are likely from Region

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active. Solar wind
speed is in gradual decline as the associated coronal hole moves out
of a geoeffective position. Solar wind speed declined from almost
700 km/s to near 600 km/s over the past 24 hours. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit were at high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels through
day one as the current high speed stream subsides. Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected on day two before the onset of a
recurrent coronal hole on day three. Expect occasional active
periods as this coronal hole moves into a geoeffective position.

III. Event Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep

  • Class M 10/10/10
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 05 Sep 108
  • Predicted 06 Sep-08 Sep 110/115/115
  • 90 Day Mean 05 Sep 126

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep 015/019
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep 018/020
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep 015/015-010/012-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep-08 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 25/20/30
  • Minor storm 10/05/10
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 35/25/40
  • Minor storm 15/10/20
  • Major-severe storm 05/01/05

SpaceRef staff editor.