Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 Oct 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Oct 05 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed. Region 1003 (S23E15) decayed to spotless plage.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet as the high speed wind stream gradually waned. Solar wind velocities, as measured at the ACE satellite, steadily decreased in velocity, and ended the period at about 475 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels all three days of the forecast period (06 – 08 October).

III. Event Probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 05 Oct 067
• Predicted 06 Oct-08 Oct 067/067/067
• 90 Day Mean 05 Oct 066

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct 008/011
• Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Oct 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01