Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 Oct 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Oct 05 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A C1.4 flare was observed at
05/0056 UTC from a spotless plage region near S11E75.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet.

III. Event Probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 05 Oct 091
• Predicted 06 Oct-08 Oct 095/100/105
• 90 Day Mean 05 Oct 112

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct 008/010
• Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Oct 005/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 15/15/15
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05