Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 Nov 2008
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Nov 05 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. An isolated low-level B-class flare occurred. Region 1007 (N35W72) continued to gradually decay as it approached the west limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high during most of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet levels on day 1 (06 November). Activity is expected to increase to active to major storm levels on day 2 (07 November) due to a recurrent hole high-speed stream. Activity is expected to decrease to unsettled to active levels on day 3 (08 November) as coronal hole effects subside.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 05 Nov 068
- Predicted 06 Nov-08 Nov 068/069/070
- 90 Day Mean 05 Nov 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov 001/001
- Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov 001/005
- Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov 005/005-020/030-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 05/50/30
- Minor storm 01/35/10
- Major-severe storm 01/10/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 10/25/35
- Minor storm 01/50/15
- Major-severe storm 01/20/05