Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 Nov 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Nov 05 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 921 (S08W24) produced two C-class flares. The largest of these was a C3/Sf flare at 05/1227Z. A Type II radio sweep was reported at 05/1730Z. Solar observatories reported estimated shock speeds ranging from 1089 to 1541 km/sec. Although no significant flare activity was observed at this time, H-alpha imagery indicates a DSF may have occurred.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low. There remains a chance of an isolated C-class flare from Region 921.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet.

III. Event Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01

PCAF Green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 05 Nov 085
• Predicted 06 Nov-08 Nov 085/085/085
• 90 Day Mean 05 Nov 078

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov 004/006
• Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05