Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 Nov 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. Updated 2005 Nov 05 2204 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. New Region 820 (S16W27) produced three B-class x-ray flares. This rapidly-emerging region depicts a relatively simple beta magnetic structure.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Isolated periods of active conditions are possible on 06 November, due to a favorably-positioned coronal hole, which should move out of geoeffective position late in the day.

III. Event Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 05 Nov 079
• Predicted 06 Nov-08 Nov 080/080/080
• 90 Day Mean 05 Nov 084

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov 016/020
• Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov 012/020
• Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov 008/012-005/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/20/15
• Minor storm 10/05/05
• Major-severe storm 05/01/01