Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 Nov 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
November 5, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Nov 05 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity increased to high levels today. Region
696 (N09E06) produced the largest flare of the period, an M5 major
flare at 04/2309Z that had an associated Tenflare (1800 sfu’s), Type
IV spectral radio sweep, and a Type II sweep with an estimated shock
velocity of 1053 km/sec. An M2/1n event occurred at 04/2229Z. The
combination of these two flares resulted in a complex partial halo
CME that should become geoeffective. Region 696 also produced an
M4/1f at 05/1130Z that had an associated Tenflare and a Type IV
spectral radio sweep and an M1/Sf that occurred at 05/1922Z. This
region continues to grow in sunspot area and magnetic complexity
while the delta magnetic structure remains well intact. Region 693
(S15W44) has shown steady decay today as the sunspot penumbral
converge has lessened and the magnetic delta structure is no longer
evident. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Several M-class flares with an isolated
major flare are possible from Region 696.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to major storm levels. The anticipated
shock from the full halo CME related to M5/Sn that occurred on 03
November at 1547Z and is expected to arrive on 06 November. A
weaker shock is expected late on the sixth, early on 07 November as
a result of the long duration C6/Sf event from 04 November that
occurred at 0905Z indicated by the resulting partial halo CME. A
third shock passage is expected late on the seventh, early on 08
November due to the resulting partial halo CME that occurred today
in response to the combination of the M2 and M5 x-ray events of
today. Due to the magnetic complexity and frequency of M-class
flares from Region 696 there exists a chance for the greater than 10
MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit to exceed threshold in
response to further major flare activity.

III. Event Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov

  • Class M 75/75/75
  • Class X 20/20/20
  • Proton 20/20/20
  • PCAF yellow

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 05 Nov 141
  • Predicted 06 Nov-08 Nov 140/140/140
  • 90 Day Mean 05 Nov 109

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov 005/007
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov 005/007
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov 025/030-020/020-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov-08 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 40/40/35
  • Minor storm 35/25/20
  • Major-severe storm 20/15/10

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 35/45/45
  • Minor storm 40/25/25
  • Major-severe storm 20/15/15

SpaceRef staff editor.