Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 May 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 May 05 2208 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

::::::::::CORRECTED COPY::::::::::

SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 993 (S31E14) remains a simple bipolar sunspot group.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was predominately at quiet to unsettled levels. An isolated active period was observed at middle latitudes between 1500-1800Z. Solar wind velocities, as measured at the ACE satellite, remain elevated at about 625 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for isolated active periods on days 1 and 2 (06 and 07 May) due to the high speed stream. By day 3 (08 May), geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet as the high speed stream abates.

III. Event Probabilities 06 May-08 May

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 05 May 68
• Predicted 06 May-08 May 068/068/068
• 90 Day Mean 05 May 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 04 May 006/008
• Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May 008/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May 008/010-008/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May-08 May

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/20/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 30/30/10
• Minor storm 10/10/05
• Major-severe storm 05/05/01