Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 May 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 May 05 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 953 (S10W57) produced a C4.2/1f flare at 05/1247Z.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low, with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 953.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated active periods, on 06-07 May due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Expect predominantly quiet conditions on 08 May.

III. Event Probabilities 06 May-08 May

• Class M 15/15/15
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 05 May 081
• Predicted 06 May-08 May 080/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 05 May 074

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 04 May 001/002
• Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May 002/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May 008/010-008/010-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May-08 May

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/20/15
• Minor storm 10/10/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/25/20
• Minor storm 15/15/05
• Major-severe storm 05/05/01