Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 May 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 May 05 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Regions 875 (S13W85) and 880 (S08E50) were limited to minor B-class flare activity. Region 881 (S12E75) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. The elevated conditions were due to a co-rotating interaction region.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels, possibly isolated severe storm conditions on 06 May due to a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream. Predominantly unsettled to active conditions are expected on 07 and 08 May due to continued coronal hole effects.

III. Event Probabilities 06 May-08 May

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 05 May 087
• Predicted 06 May-08 May 085/085/085
• 90 Day Mean 05 May 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 04 May 010/014
• Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May 015/017
• Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May 025/030-015/020-012/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May-08 May A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 50/35/30
• Minor storm 25/20/15
• Major-severe storm 10/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 50/30/30
• Minor storm 25/20/20
• Major-severe storm 15/10/10