Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 May 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 May 05 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the past
24 hours was a C7/Sf at 05/2020 UTC in Region 756 (S09W65). This
region continues to decay. Region 758 (S06E37) also produced a
number of small B and C-class flares and is growing slowly and
becoming more magnetically complex.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with predominately B and C-class activity in Regions 756 and 758.
There is a chance of a small M-class flare in either of these
regions, as well.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 06 May-08 May

• Class M 20/20/20
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 05 May 109
• Predicted 06 May-08 May 105/105/100
• 90 Day Mean 05 May 092

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 04 May 004/007
• Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May 005/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May 005/010-005/005-005/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May-08 May

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01