Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 May 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
May 5, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 May 05 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Occasional B-class flares
were observed in Regions 603 (S16W90) and 605 (S12W16). Region 605
continues in a slow growth phase and currently exhibits minor
magnetic complexity. No other significant activity was noted.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 605 has potential for an isolated C-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A high speed coronal hole
stream became geoeffective late in the period. Solar wind speed
increased from near 450 km/s to approximately 580 km/s.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active levels. A minor disturbance
associated with a high speed coronal hole stream will likely result
in unsettled to active periods through 6 May. Predominantly quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected on 7 and 8 May.

III. Event Probabilities 06 May-08 May

  • Class M 15/15/15
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 05 May 089
  • Predicted 06 May-08 May 090/095/095
  • 90 Day Mean 05 May 106

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 04 May 006/010
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May 010/012
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May 015/015-010/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May-08 May

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 35/25/20
  • Minor storm 25/15/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 40/30/25
  • Minor storm 30/20/15
  • Major-severe storm 10/05/01

SpaceRef staff editor.