Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 May 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 May 05 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Occasional B-class flares
were observed in Regions 603 (S16W90) and 605 (S12W16). Region 605
continues in a slow growth phase and currently exhibits minor
magnetic complexity. No other significant activity was noted.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 605 has potential for an isolated C-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A high speed coronal hole
stream became geoeffective late in the period. Solar wind speed
increased from near 450 km/s to approximately 580 km/s.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active levels. A minor disturbance
associated with a high speed coronal hole stream will likely result
in unsettled to active periods through 6 May. Predominantly quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected on 7 and 8 May.

III. Event Probabilities 06 May-08 May

• Class M 15/15/15
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 05 May 089
• Predicted 06 May-08 May 090/095/095
• 90 Day Mean 05 May 106

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 04 May 006/010
• Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May 010/012
• Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May 015/015-010/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May-08 May

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 35/25/20
• Minor storm 25/15/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 40/30/25
• Minor storm 30/20/15
• Major-severe storm 10/05/01