Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 May 2003

SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Regions 348 (S35W55) and
349 (S14W60) have produced several low level C-class events. Region
348 has developed slightly during the period while 349 has remained
mostly unchanged. New Region 355 (N12E45) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 348 and 349 both have the potential to produce
an M-class event.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quit to active levels. A transit
flow in the solar wind speeds of over 650 km/s were responsible for
the elevated conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active conditions. Isolated minor
storm conditions are also possible for the forecast period. These
conditions are expected due to the onset of a recurrent coronal
hole.

III. Event Probabilities 06 May-08 May

• Class M 60/50/50
• Class X 10/05/05
• Proton 05/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 05 May 129
• Predicted 06 May-08 May 120/115/115
• 90 Day Mean 05 May 127

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 04 May 004/007
• Estimated Afr/Ap 05 May 012/015
• Predicted Afr/Ap 06 May-08 May 020/025-020/025-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 May-08 May

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 40/40/30
• Minor storm 20/20/15
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 50/50/45
• Minor storm 30/30/25
• Major-severe storm 10/10/10