Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 Mar 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Mar 05 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 064 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during the past 24 hours. Region 856 (S10W12) continues to be a very small, stable sunspot group. New Region 857 (N08E41) was assigned today and is also small and stable.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagetic field is expected to be quiet for 06-07 March and is expected to be quiet to unsettled for 08 March.

III. Event Probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 05 Mar 074
• Predicted 06 Mar-08 Mar 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 05 Mar 083

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 04 Mar 001/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Mar 004/004
• Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar 005/005-005/005-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01