Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 Mar 2004

By SpaceRef Editor
March 5, 2004
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Mar 05 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 065 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels. New Region 570
(S13E84) produced several C-class flares today, the largest was a C6
x-ray event that occurred at 05/0912Z. Currently, a large
asymmetrical sunspot has emerged onto the visible disk and further
analysis of this region is pending. Region 567 (S12W42) underwent
no significant changes today and flare production was limited to
several B-class events. The largest was a B9 x-ray flare that
occurred at 05/0103Z. LASCO imagery does not depict any significant
CME activity associated with today’s events. The remainder of the
disk was fairly quiescent today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 567 exhibits the magnetic complexity
to produce isolated M-class flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels throughout
the period.

III. Event Probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar

  • Class M 40/50/50
  • Class X 10/15/15
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 05 Mar 107
  • Predicted 06 Mar-08 Mar 115/120/120
  • 90 Day Mean 05 Mar 111

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 04 Mar 004/007
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Mar 004/008
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar 005/008-005/008-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 15/15/15
  • Minor storm 01/01/01
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 15/15/15
  • Minor storm 05/05/05
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.