Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 05 Mar 2003
SDF Number 064 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Several B-class subflares were
observed mostly from Regions 296 (N11E08), 301 (N22E22), and 302
(N19E50). Region 296 remains the largest sunspot group on the
visible disk with near 550 millionths of white light areal coverage.
Though this region has shown some decay in coverage, it is the
likely source of several weak to moderate radio bursts, including a
460 sfu tenflare from a B6/Sf flare at 05/0301Z. No significant
changes were observed in the remaining active regions.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
Isolated C-class flares are possible with a chance of an M-class
flare from Region 296.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Mostly unsettled
conditions prevailed early in the period in response to a waning
high speed coronal hole stream. Solar wind data indicated another
high speed stream onset at around 1300Z, preceded by a weak
co-rotating interaction region. Solar wind speed ranged from 500 –
550 km/s for the latter half of the period and isolated active
periods were observed at all latitudes. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at mostly quiet to unsettled levels with
isolated active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
- Class M 20/20/20
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 05 Mar 149
- Predicted 06 Mar-08 Mar 150/145/145
- 90 Day Mean 05 Mar 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 04 Mar 015/026
- Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Mar 015/015
- Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar 012/015-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 35/30/25
- Minor storm 15/10/05
- Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 40/35/30
- Minor storm 20/15/10
- Major-severe storm 10/10/05
